经济学人精读节选100篇Should you buy expensive stocks? 你应该买贵的股票吗？-英语外刊社

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经济学人精读节选100篇Should you buy expensive stocks?你应该买贵的股票吗？

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本期选文来源：The Economist|June 8th 2024 ，需要经济学人原版PDF|全文中英翻译|MP3|大家下拉至文末下载|也可以自助开通本站会员后加入专属QQ社群或下拉至文末获取全文文档PDF中英翻译PDF,MOBI,EPUB,AZW3,MP3🎵等多种格式。

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Should you buy expensive stocks?

你应该买昂贵的股票吗？

【导读】A new paper suggests the answer is “yes”一篇新论文表明答案是肯定的。

【1】ON JUNE 7 TH each share in Nvidia is due to become many. In one sense such stock splits ought not to matter much: they merely lower the share price, usually returning it to somewhere near $100, in order to make small trades easier. Yet for the company and its longtime backers this administrative exercise is cause to pop the champagne. For a split to be necessary in the first place, the share price must have multiplied, commonly by two or three, prompting each share to be divided by the same factor. Each Nvidia share, however, will become ten. Two years ago both Alphabet and Amazon split each of their shares into 20. Investors in big tech have had plenty of opportunities to let the corks fly.

单词解析：commonly：adv. 通常地；常常；通常；大多数人地

例句：This is one of the most commonly used methods. 这是最常采用的方法之一。

6 月 7 日，英伟达的每股股票将变多。从某种意义上说，这种股票分割应该无关紧要：它们只是降低股价，通常将其恢复到100美元附近，以使小额交易更容易。然而，对于该公司及其长期支持者来说，这种行政行为是开香槟的原因。首先，要使拆分成为必要，股价必须乘以两到三，促使每股除以相同的因子。然而，英伟达的每股股票将变成十个。两年前，Alphabet和亚马逊都将其股份分成20股。大型科技公司的投资者有很多机会让软木塞飞起来。

【2】All three firms have made traditional valuation measures look hopelessly outdated. Dividend yields, for instance, were once a popular tool for assessing prospective returns. But Amazon has never made such a payout and Alphabet will make its first ever on June 17th (of 20 cents per $175 share). Nvidia’s quarterly dividend after the split will be just one cent per share, each priced at around $120. Plainly, there is no stretch of the imagination by which these payouts explain the stocks’ spectacular returns.

单词解析：payout：n. 付出的巨款

例句：Developing Education of Countryside by Use of Public Payout 利用公共支出发展农村教育

这三家公司都让传统的估值指标看起来无可救药地过时了。例如，股息收益率曾经是评估预期回报的流行工具。但亚马逊从未支付过这样的费用，Alphabet 将在 6 月 17 日首次支付（每股 175 美元股票 20 美分）。英伟达拆分后的季度股息仅为每股1美分，每股价格约为120美元。显然，这些派息无法解释股票的惊人回报。

【3】The stage is, therefore, set for the revival of a fierce argument. Low yields might mean that dividends will rise, or that future returns will be poor. Reams of academic research suggest that, historically and for the stockmarket as a whole, they have portended poor returns. Even so, a school of thought has stubbornly held that investors know what they are doing, and if they are buying stocks that yield little, they must expect payouts to grow. Of late, hewing to this school and buying the likes of Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia would have made you a lot richer than fretting about valuations. So could it be correct after all?

单词解析：fierce：adj.凶猛的；猛烈的；狂热的；(外表上)险恶的；(机械装置等)作用强烈(或猛烈)的；不友好的，难接近的；<英方>精力旺盛的；极不好的 adv.可厌地；非常，很

例句：The fire gave out a fierce heat. 火焰散发出炽热。

因此，为激烈争论的复兴奠定了基础。低收益率可能意味着股息会上升，或者未来的回报会很差。大量的学术研究表明，从历史上看，对于整个股市来说，它们预示着糟糕的回报。即便如此，一个思想流派仍然顽固地认为，投资者知道他们在做什么，如果他们购买的股票收益率低，他们必须期望派息会增长。最近，追随这所学校并收购Alphabet、亚马逊和英伟达等公司会让你比担心估值更富有。那么它到底是正确的吗？

【4】Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri, three economists, have recently waded into the debate. In a working paper they argue that movements in the price and dividends of a broad share index between 1929 and 2023 can be explained purely by a model of expected future dividends (specifically, the ratio of these to aggregate consumption). In other words, prices move only when investors receive news that changes their expectation of future payouts. Otherwise, they demonstrate impeccable restraint.

单词解析：demonstrate：v.证明；演示；示范；论证；表现；说明；证实；表达；表露；显露；集会示威

例句：You need to demonstrate more self-control. 你应该表现出更强的自制力。

安德鲁·阿特克森（Andrew Atkeson）、乔纳森·希斯科特（Jonathan Heathcote）和法布里齐奥·佩里（Fabrizio Perri）这三位经济学家最近也加入了这场辩论。在一份工作论文中，他们认为，1929 年至 2023 年间广泛股票指数的价格和股息变动可以纯粹用预期未来股息模型（具体来说，这些股息与总消费的比率）来解释。换句话说，只有当投资者收到改变他们对未来派息预期的消息时，价格才会变动。否则，他们表现出无可挑剔的克制。

【5】Contrast this with the alternative view, which is that prices move for all sorts of other reasons, too. The value of a stock is the sum of its expected future cashflows, discounted by myriad factors such as the uncertainty of the expectation, the cost of capital and investors’ risk appetite. Changes to any of these will feed through to stock prices. In particular, if risk appetite is high, prices may also be high relative to expected payouts simply because investors are able to take more risk and hence happy to receive low yields in return. Conversely, if risk appetite is low, investors may feel unable to buy stocks even if their expected payouts are high. This dynamic alone can change both yields and prospective returns, without expected payouts changing at all.

单词解析：cashflows：现金流

例句：But by 2030 or 2040, those cashflows will be generated by our children. 但是在2030年或者2040年为止，这些资金流都得由我们的子辈来创造。

与此形成鲜明对比的是另一种观点，即价格波动也是出于各种其他原因。股票的价值是其预期未来现金流的总和，除去预期的不确定性、资本成本和投资者的风险偏好等多种因素。其中任何一项的变化都将影响股价。特别是，如果风险偏好很高，相对于预期支出，价格也可能很高，这仅仅是因为投资者能够承担更多风险，因此乐于获得低收益率作为回报。相反，如果风险偏好较低，即使预期派息很高，投资者也可能感到无法购买股票。仅这种动态就可以改变收益率和预期回报，而预期支出根本没有变化。

【6】Previous work—most notably a landmark paper published in 2011 by John Cochrane, then of the University of Chicago—has concluded that it is entirely changes to such “discount rates”, rather than growing or shrinking dividends, that cause yields to vary. Unfortunately, Messrs Atkeson, Heathcote and Perri do not present an effective challenge to this notion. Rather, they construct a model that relates prices to dividends, plus a third variable that they then derive and dub “expected dividends”. Naturally, the addition of this residual explains the price changes it is defined to explain. But you might equally call it “risk appetite”, and claim a win for the other side of the debate.

单词解析：appetite：n.食欲；胃口；强烈欲望

例句：The walk gave me a good appetite. 散步使我胃口大开。

之前的研究——最著名的是芝加哥大学的约翰·科克伦（John Cochrane）在2011年发表的一篇具有里程碑意义的论文——得出的结论是，导致收益率变化的完全是这种“贴现率”的变化，而不是股息的增长或减少。不幸的是，阿特克森先生、希斯科特先生和佩里先生并没有对这一概念提出有效的挑战。相反，他们构建了一个将价格与股息联系起来的模型，再加上第三个变量，然后他们得出并称之为“预期股息”。当然，这个残差的添加解释了它被定义为解释的价格变化。但你同样可以称之为“风险偏好”，并声称辩论的另一方取得了胜利。

【7】Where does that leave today’s low-yielding superstar stocks? It is always tempting to believe that today’s forecasts are simply better than yesterday’s, and the old patterns no longer apply. A stronger defence is that dividends have gone out of fashion. Earnings may thus be a better proxy for returns since they can be used to reward investors in other ways (by buying back shares to generate a capital gain, for instance). On this measure, such firms do not look quite so eye-wateringly expensive. Yet they are hardly cheap, with Nvidia valued at more than 100 times its most recent full-year earnings. Perhaps investors are correctly predicting more barnstorming growth ahead. More likely, they are once again falling into the trap of thinking “this time is different”.

单词解析：barnstorming：(演出、比赛等)令人兴奋的，激烈的，精彩的 v.作巡回政治演说(或宣传、游说等)

例句：The election is the day after tomorrow and the presidential candidates are barnstorming through the country. 大选将在后天举行，总统候选人们马不停蹄地在多个摇摆州转战演说。

这让今天的低收益超级明星股票何去何从？人们总是很容易相信今天的预测比昨天的预测更好，旧的模式不再适用。一个更有力的辩护是股息已经过时了。因此，收益可能是回报的更好代表，因为它们可以用来以其他方式奖励投资者（例如，通过回购股票以产生资本收益）。从这个角度来看，这些公司看起来并不那么昂贵。然而，它们并不便宜，英伟达的估值是其最近全年收益的100倍以上。也许投资者正确地预测了未来会出现更多的狂风暴雨。更有可能的是，他们再次陷入了“这次不一样”的思维陷阱。

长难句分析：

1）原文：Contrast this with the alternative view, which is that prices move for all sorts of other reasons, too.

2）解析：

Contrast（谓语） this with the alternative view, (which is | that prices move（谓语） || for all sorts (of other) （后置定语）reasons, [too]).（非限定性定语从句）

2）句子语法结构详解：

* 开头为祈使句。
* contrast 为谓语。
* which 为关系代词，引导非限制性定语从句。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* that 为连词，引导表语从句。
* move 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* for all 引导状语从句。
* reasons 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* this 为指示代词。other 为不定代词。the 为定冠词。