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经济学人精读节选100篇Is America’s economy heading for a consumer crunch? 美国经济是否正在走向消费紧缩？

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本期选文来源：The Economist|June 8th 2024 ，需要经济学人原版PDF|全文中英翻译|MP3|大家下拉至文末下载|也可以自助开通本站会员后加入专属QQ社群或下拉至文末获取全文文档PDF中英翻译PDF,MOBI,EPUB,AZW3,MP3🎵等多种格式。

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Is America’s economy heading for a consumer crunch?|美国经济是否正在走向消费紧缩？

【1】Warning signs have started to appear. But there are reasons for optimism

警告信号已经开始出现。但有理由保持乐观

【2】NOTHING HAS been able to stop American consumers. At first they splashed covid-19 savings on home-exercise bicycles; now they are more likely to plump for beachside holidays. Predictions made by bank bosses last summer that households would be squeezed by inflation have been confounded. Instead, their outlays have powered American GDP ever higher, at a pace beyond the country’s G7 peers.

单词解析： inflation n.通货膨胀；充气；通胀率

例句：The rate of inflation increased by 2%. 通货膨胀率增长了2%。

没有什么能够阻止美国消费者。起初，他们将 covid-19 的储蓄花在了家庭锻炼自行车上;现在，他们更有可能在海边度假。去年夏天，银行老板们关于家庭将受到通胀挤压的预测已经令人困惑。相反，他们的支出推动了美国GDP的不断提高，其速度超过了该国的七国集团（G7）同行。

【3】But are the predictions at last coming true? Monthly consumer-spending growth fell from 0.7% in March to just 0.2% in April. Overall spending shrank in real terms. Retail sales have weakened, with brands from McDonald’s, a burger purveyor, to 3M, a maker of sticky tape, warning that customers are closing their wallets. The recent spending data, released on May 31st, helped wipe almost a percentage point off the prediction of annual GDP growth from the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve, cutting its “nowcast” for the second quarter of the year to 1.8%.

单词解析：purveyor：n.供应商；提供者；供应公司

例句：Words are the least reliable purveyor of Truth. 言语是最不可靠的传递真理的方式。

但这些预言最终成真了吗？月度消费者支出增长率从3月份的0.7%下降到4月份的0.2%。整体支出按实际价值计算有所下降。零售销售已经减弱，从汉堡供应商麦当劳（McDonald’s）到胶带制造商3M（3M）等品牌都警告说，顾客正在关闭钱包。5月31日公布的最新支出数据帮助美联储亚特兰大分行的年度GDP增长预测低了近一个百分点，将其今年第二季度的“临近预报”下调至1.8%。

【4】Nowhere is the pain clearer than in credit-card data. According to the San Francisco Fed, households burned through the last of their $2.1trn of pandemic-era excess savingsin March. The drawdown has pushed more and more to rely on credit cards to meet their outgoings, and some are now struggling to repay debts. Paul Siegfried of TransUnion, a credit bureau, estimates that since April last year, 440,000 credit-card holders have been downgraded to subprime status. Accounts are becoming delinquent at a pace last seen in 2011. People who have taken out loans to buy cars are falling behind on repayments almost as fast, causing some to sell their vehicles. According to Kelley Blue Book, a sales platform, used-car listings were up 6% in May from a year earlier.

单词解析：subprime：adj.(贷款)次级的

例句：The riskiest subprime securitieshave almost no takers. 风险最高的次级证券几乎没有人持有。

没有比信用卡数据更明显的痛苦了。根据旧金山联储的数据，3月份，家庭烧光了大流行时期2.1万亿美元的超额储蓄中的最后一笔。缩水促使越来越多的人依靠信用卡来支付支出，有些人现在正在努力偿还债务。征信机构环联（TransUnion）的保罗·齐格弗里德（Paul Siegfried）估计，自去年4月以来，已有44万信用卡持有人被降级为次级贷款。账户正在以2011年最后一次出现的速度拖欠。那些贷款买车的人拖欠还款的速度几乎同样快，导致一些人卖掉了他们的汽车。根据销售平台凯利蓝皮书（Kelley Blue Book）的数据，5月份二手车上市量同比增长6%。

【5】Florida is at the heart of the trouble. The state is home to lots of low-income workers and has the highest delinquency rates of a sample analysed by the New York Fed. Esther Lopez has worked at ACE Cash Express, a payday lender in Little Havana, Miami, for 15 years. She says her store is handing out fewer loans than before covid—but only because so many competing lenders have recently opened, in anticipation of a rise in demand. The city’s residents will take longer than those anywhere else in the country to repay their credit-card debt, reckons WalletHub, a personal-finance firm. Aptly, Miami’s baseball stadium is called loanDepot Park.

单词解析： anticipation：n. 期待；预计；预期；预料；期望；预见；期盼

例句：She tensed her muscles in anticipation of the blow. 眼看要挨打，她绷紧了肌肉。

佛罗里达是麻烦的核心。该州是许多低收入工人的家园，并且在纽约联邦储备银行分析的样本中拖欠率最高。埃丝特·洛佩兹（Esther Lopez）在迈阿密小哈瓦那的发薪日贷款机构ACE Cash Express工作了15年。她说，她的商店发放的贷款比新冠疫情之前少了，但这只是因为最近有这么多竞争的贷方开业，预计需求会增加。个人理财公司WalletHub估计，该市居民将比全国其他任何地方的居民需要更长的时间来偿还信用卡债务。恰如其分的是，迈阿密的棒球场被称为loanDepot Park。

【6】Some remain bullish about America’s economy as a whole, however. Eric Wallerstein of Yardeni Research, a consultancy, sees rising delinquency rates as a return to normality, rather than a harbinger of worse to come. True, higher interest rates mean poor creditors are more likely to fall behind on repayments. And at 5.25-5.5% the Fed’s benchmark rate is more than double what it was in 2019. Yet delinquency rates are much lower than they were in 2007—the last time interest rates were this high—and indeed at any time from 1991 to 2011. Banks are relaxed about the current level of stress, and are raising credit limits faster than customers can use up their balances.

单词解析：benchmark：n. 基准 vt.检测（用基准问题测试）

例句：The truck industry is a benchmark for the economy. 卡车业是衡量经济的一个基准。

然而，一些人仍然看好美国整体经济。咨询公司Yardeni Research的埃里克·沃勒斯坦（Eric Wallerstein）认为，犯罪率上升是回归常态，而不是更糟情况的预兆。诚然，更高的利率意味着贫穷的债权人更有可能拖欠还款。美联储的基准利率为5.25-5.5%，是2019年的两倍多。然而，拖欠率远低于2007年——上一次利率如此之高——事实上，从1991年到2011年的任何时候。银行对目前的压力水平感到放松，并且提高信用额度的速度快于客户用完余额的速度。

【7】Plenty of Americans remain supremely comfortable. Big spenders on large incomes—the sort more commonly found in Miami’s South Beach than in Little Havana—can easily repay credit-card debts. Despite the rise in interest rates, overall debt-servicing costs on homes remain low, since many mortgage-holders are on long-term fixes. All told, one-third of mortgage debt was refinanced in 2020-21 as borrowers took advantage of low rates; households are spending a smaller share of income on paying down debts than at any point in the 2010s. Those who own homes and stocks are also enjoying rising asset prices and associated rental and dividend incomes. The S&P500 index of large American companies is up by 12% this year, for instance.

单词解析：mortgage：n.抵押贷款；按揭(由银行等提供房产抵押借款)；按揭贷款 vt.(向银行等)抵押(房产)

例句：We’re mortgaged up to the hilt. 我们已经把什么都抵押了。

许多美国人仍然非常舒适。高收入的大手笔消费者——这种收入在迈阿密的南海滩比在小哈瓦那更常见——可以很容易地偿还信用卡债务。尽管利率上升，但房屋的整体偿债成本仍然很低，因为许多抵押贷款持有人正在长期固定。总而言之，由于借款人利用了低利率，三分之一的抵押贷款债务在 2020-21 年进行了再融资;与2010年代的任何时候相比，家庭用于偿还债务的收入份额都较小。那些拥有房屋和股票的人也享受着不断上涨的资产价格以及相关的租金和股息收入。例如，美国大型公司的标准普尔500指数今年上涨了12%。

【8】What matters for the overall economy is how many consumers end up struggling to make ends meet. Rising incomes, along with pandemic savings, were what really fuelled America’s rip-roaring spending. With saving rates low and excess savings exhausted, continued spending will have to be fuelled by still-higher incomes. Employment remains strong and initial jobless claims are steady. Although in April monthly nominal wage growth crept down, recent data also suggest that inflation may have resumed its descent, which would provide a boost to real incomes. Households’ balance-sheets have weakened, but with a bit of luck America might keep dodging a consumer crunch.

单词解析：initial ：adj. 开始的；最初的；第一的

例句：Just write your initials. 写下你的姓名首字母即可。

对整体经济来说，重要的是有多少消费者最终难以维持生计。收入的增加，加上疫情期间的储蓄，才是真正推动美国疯狂支出的原因。由于储蓄率低，超额储蓄耗尽，持续的支出将不得不由更高的收入来推动。就业仍然强劲，初请失业金人数保持稳定。尽管4月份月度名义工资增长率略有下降，但最近的数据也表明，通胀可能已经恢复下降，这将提振实际收入。家庭的资产负债表已经减弱，但如果运气好的话，美国可能会继续躲避消费紧缩。

【9】For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.

单词解析：newsletter：n. 新闻稿；(某组织的)内部通讯，简讯

例句：We issue a monthly newsletter. 我们出版一份通讯月刊。

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